**Index to Statistical Terms
in**

**Curve Ball: Baseball, Statistics, and the Role of Chance
in the Game**

** **

Ability,
52

- hitting, 120

- streaky, 113

- team, 312

Ability
effect, 91

Additive
model for hitting, 227

Additive
probability model, 17

Bayes'
rule, 299

Bias
effect, 90

Biased
inference, 144

Binomial
distribution, 7, 76, 295

Boxplot,
34

- to compare groups, 35, 81, 163, 322

Bradley-Terry
model for team competition, 326

Carriers
in linear regression, 189

Chance
variation, 62, 88

Coin-toss
model, 57

Conditional
probability, 210

Conditional
row fractions, 336

Confidence
interval

- or different sample sizes, 68

- for comparing two batters, 69

- for proportion, 64, 66

Consistent
model, 122, 138

Contingency
table, 335

Correlation
coefficient, 108, 147

Cumulative
distribution function, 198

Doughnut
plot, 3

Error
in estimate, 149

Expected
value, 191

Five-number
summary, 35

Histogram,
31, 42, 43

Inference

- about proportion, 63

- about streakines, 133

Interaction
probability model, 20

Interesting
values, 34

Least
squares

- fit, 55, 154

- linear regression, 178

- to predict winner of game, 287

Margin
of error, 66

Mean,
31

Mean
squared error, 151

Median,
32

Moving
average, 117, 135

- plot, 117, 123

Multinomial
distribution, 5

Nonlinear
relationship, 231

Normal
curve, 30, 33

- for modeling team abilities, 319

- for modeling hitting abilities, 82

Observed
effects, 93

Observed
proportion, 58, 75

Percentiles
of normal curve, 325

Performance

- streaky, 113

- team, 312

Pie
chart, 2

Prediction

- accuracy of, 289

- Bayesian, 300

- game results, 286

- home run number, 292

- interval, Bayesian, 302

- least-square, 154

- of OBPs, 55

Predictive
probability, 303

Prior
distribution, 298

Probabilities,
graph of, 298

Probability

- model, 57

- of event, 13

- as area, 60

- of winning a game, 267

Product
model, for hitting

p-value,
125, 131, 142

Quartiles,
32

Random-effects
model, 83

Real
effects, 53

Regression
to the mean, 56

Relationships
between variables, 38

Residual

- plot, 232

- from least-squares fit, 157

Root
mean squared error, 151

Rule
of total probabilities, 210

Runs
of good and bad days, 119

Scatterplot,
39, 53

- with labels, 40

Selection
bias, 143

Skewness,
43

Smooth
fit, to home-run rates, 306

Spinner
model, 60, 76, 121, 128, 292, 329

Standard
deviation, 33, 320

- of sample proportion, 323

Statistical
significance, 178

Stemplot,
29, 77

- back-to-back, 46

Streaky
model, 126, 141

Talent
of a team, 314

Tree
diagram, 210

True
effect, 88

True
proportion, 57, 75

Unusual
values, 38