Index to Statistical Terms
in
Curve Ball: Baseball, Statistics, and the Role of Chance
in the Game
Ability,
52
- hitting, 120
- streaky, 113
- team, 312
Ability
effect, 91
Additive
model for hitting, 227
Additive
probability model, 17
Bayes'
rule, 299
Bias
effect, 90
Biased
inference, 144
Binomial
distribution, 7, 76, 295
Boxplot,
34
- to compare groups, 35, 81, 163, 322
Bradley-Terry
model for team competition, 326
Carriers
in linear regression, 189
Chance
variation, 62, 88
Coin-toss
model, 57
Conditional
probability, 210
Conditional
row fractions, 336
Confidence
interval
- or different sample sizes, 68
- for comparing two batters, 69
- for proportion, 64, 66
Consistent
model, 122, 138
Contingency
table, 335
Correlation
coefficient, 108, 147
Cumulative
distribution function, 198
Doughnut
plot, 3
Error
in estimate, 149
Expected
value, 191
Five-number
summary, 35
Histogram,
31, 42, 43
Inference
- about proportion, 63
- about streakines, 133
Interaction
probability model, 20
Interesting
values, 34
Least
squares
- fit, 55, 154
- linear regression, 178
- to predict winner of game, 287
Margin
of error, 66
Mean,
31
Mean
squared error, 151
Median,
32
Moving
average, 117, 135
- plot, 117, 123
Multinomial
distribution, 5
Nonlinear
relationship, 231
Normal
curve, 30, 33
- for modeling team abilities, 319
- for modeling hitting abilities, 82
Observed
effects, 93
Observed
proportion, 58, 75
Percentiles
of normal curve, 325
Performance
- streaky, 113
- team, 312
Pie
chart, 2
Prediction
- accuracy of, 289
- Bayesian, 300
- game results, 286
- home run number, 292
- interval, Bayesian, 302
- least-square, 154
- of OBPs, 55
Predictive
probability, 303
Prior
distribution, 298
Probabilities,
graph of, 298
Probability
- model, 57
- of event, 13
- as area, 60
- of winning a game, 267
Product
model, for hitting
p-value,
125, 131, 142
Quartiles,
32
Random-effects
model, 83
Real
effects, 53
Regression
to the mean, 56
Relationships
between variables, 38
Residual
- plot, 232
- from least-squares fit, 157
Root
mean squared error, 151
Rule
of total probabilities, 210
Runs
of good and bad days, 119
Scatterplot,
39, 53
- with labels, 40
Selection
bias, 143
Skewness,
43
Smooth
fit, to home-run rates, 306
Spinner
model, 60, 76, 121, 128, 292, 329
Standard
deviation, 33, 320
- of sample proportion, 323
Statistical
significance, 178
Stemplot,
29, 77
- back-to-back, 46
Streaky
model, 126, 141
Talent
of a team, 314
Tree
diagram, 210
True
effect, 88
True
proportion, 57, 75
Unusual
values, 38