(you fill one out for each survey question you ask)

Your name: _________________________________________

Question you will ask (with a yes or no response):

_____________________________________________________________

In my problem, p is the proportion of all BGSU undergraduate students who _____________________________________________________________

Make a guess at what YOU think the value of p is: ____________________

We will assume in defining your prior that p can only be one of the values 0, .1, .2, .... , .8, .9, 1

A. First fill out the Whole number column.

1. Assign the number 10 to the value of p that you think is most likely. Put this number in the table.

2. Consider other values of p that are not the most likely. If you think another value of p is half a likely as the most likely value, give it a 5. If you think a value of p is 1/10th as likely as the most likely value, give it a 1. Continue until you've assigned whole numbers to all 11 values of p.

3. If you give a value of p a 0, this means that you think that it is impossible that the proportion is this value.

B. Convert the whole numbers to probabilities.

1. Find the sum of the whole numbers -- put the sum in the SUM row.

2. Divide each whole number by the sum to get the probabilities. (The probabilities will add up to one.)